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Yamato Kogyo Co., Ltd.

5444.TMEDIUMScore: 56.5

Core · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-05-25

¥12,120+1.38%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

THESIS CONFIRMED: Nucor-Yamato JV (US, 49% stake) is the real earnings engine. FY2026: standalone OP ¥4.5B (-61%) but ordinary profit ¥65.2B (+20%) and net income ¥62.4B (+96%) — JV equity-method income dominates. Nucor Q1 2026 confirmed historic backlog levels; Section 232 tariff restructure (April 2026) shields JV from import competition. Stock fell from ~¥16K to ¥12.5K (-22%) = further de-rating despite thesis being confirmed. PE 8.7x on actual net income. Fortress balance sheet: equity ratio 84%, net cash. Dividend ¥400/share (yield 3.21%) maintained. FY2027 guidance: ordinary profit +4.2% to ¥68B.

Risk

1) Net income -25% in FY2027 guidance (one-time policy-share gains in FY2026 not recurring). 2) Japan/ASEAN domestic H-beam demand structurally weak — Chinese EAF dumping in ASEAN. 3) Standalone operating profit near zero (¥4.5B on ¥160B revenue) — JV dependency risk if Nucor-Yamato distribution changes. 4) US non-residential construction slowdown would directly hit JV profits.

Monitoring Trigger

If Nucor-Yamato equity-method income grows >10% in FY2027 vs FY2026, ADD to 10%. If Japan H-beam demand recovers to flat YoY (from -8% now), ADD to 10%. If standalone OP stays below ¥5B for 2 more years, TRIM (structural Japan weakness). Watch Nucor quarterly results for backlog data.

Key Dates

2026-07earningsFY2027 Q1 results (April-June 2026) — first post-full-year update

2026-10earningsFY2027 H1 results — key for Nucor-Yamato JV income trajectory

2027-04earningsFY2027 full-year results — test of ¥68B ordinary profit guidance

Key Metrics

8.7

Fwd PE

1.25

P/B

8.5%

ROE

2.8%

Op Margin

N/A

D/E

3.21%

Div Yield

+¥40B

FCF

¥563B

Mkt Cap

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Nucor-Yamato Steel Company (US, 49% JV)	H-beam structural steel — largest structural mill in Western Hemisphere	UPGRADED: Nucor Q1 2026 confirmed historic backlog levels and record steel shipments of 7M tons. Section 232 tariff restructure (April 2026) further shields domestic US steel from imports. This JV generated ¥65.2B ordinary profit in FY2026.
stale	Japan construction sector (H-beam demand)	Domestic H-beam structural steel	CONCERN: Japan H-beam demand down 7.9% YoY (JIS Federation). Nippon Steel cutting allocations. ASEAN subsidiaries hit by Chinese steel dumping. Japan domestic and ASEAN ops remain weak.

Sources & References

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