Investment Thesis
Optical earth-observation microsatellite pure-play; 5-sat GRUS-1 constellation operating, 7-sat GRUS-3 launch planned 2026 (2.2m panchromatic GSD). Smallest cap in the basket (¥47B). Japan MOD satellite constellation subcontractor alongside Synspective (imagery-contract via TriSat SPC). Repeatedly re-selected by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan for Digital National Basemap. IPO Aug 2025 at ¥345-375.
Risk
1) Most negative unit economics in the basket — FY2026 guidance: rev ¥2.5B, OP -¥3.8B, NI -¥4.0B (LOSS WIDENS YoY). 2) Smallest cash position; dilution or debt needed within 18 months. 3) GRUS-3 is all-or-nothing — 7 sats launch together, single rocket failure resets roadmap. 4) Optical EO faces commoditisation from Planet Labs, Maxar, Airbus.
Monitoring Trigger
GRUS-3 launch outcome (2026). Success + MOD revenue start: HOLD. Launch failure or widening losses >20% vs guide: EXIT. If GSI National Basemap renewal not awarded: TRIM.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| AxelGlobe (EO data) | ¥600M | 62% | GRUS optical imagery; gov agencies, enterprises in 30+ countries |
| Custom Satellite (AxelLiner) | ¥367M | 38% | Microsatellite manufacturing for third parties |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | Japan MOD (via TriSat SPC) | Small-SAT imagery sub-contract | Announced Feb 2026 — imagery contract alongside Synspective, prime Mitsubishi Electric |
| confirmed | Geospatial Information Authority of Japan | Digital National Basemap imagery | Repeatedly re-selected; recurring government contract |
| probable | International gov + enterprises (30+ countries) | GRUS optical imagery via AxelGlobe | Disclosed as customer base in IR materials |