Investment Thesis
Anchor MOD contract (¥105.6B through 2031 via TriSat SPC with Mitsubishi Electric, SKY Perfect JSAT, Mitsui) de-risks the StriX SAR constellation. Cash ¥24.5B, equity ratio 76%, lowest leverage of Japan space pure-plays. Subcontract signed February 2026 — revenue recognition begins FY2026. Targeting 30-sat constellation by late-2020s; seven StriX birds already in orbit. SAR imaging is all-weather, all-hours — only category the MOD needs.
Risk
1) Execution on 30-sat manufacturing cadence; delays compress constellation value. 2) Mitsubishi Electric SPC is the prime — Synspective is a subcontractor, share of ¥105.6B not disclosed. 3) SAR imagery commoditising globally (Capella, ICEYE). 4) Burn rate ¥4B/yr operating loss; cash covers ~5-6 yrs absent revenue ramp.
Monitoring Trigger
FY2026 Q3 (ending Sep 2026) results — first full quarter of MOD revenue. If recognised MOD revenue <¥3B in the quarter, TRIM (contract ramp slipping). If StriX-11 and -12 launches complete on schedule by Dec 2026 + MOD revenue tracks ¥15-20B annualised, ADD.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAR Data & Solutions | ¥2.4B | 100% | StriX satellite imagery and analytics; MOD, governments, commercial |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | Japan Ministry of Defense (via TriSat SPC) | Small-SAR satellite imagery data | Contract signed Feb 19 2026, runs to Mar 31 2031. Prime: Mitsubishi Electric; Synspective subcontract — total project value ¥105.6B |
| confirmed | Mitsubishi Electric Corp | SAR data feed + satellite co-development | Prime contractor relationship under Japan MOD constellation |
| probable | International governments | StriX SAR imagery | Seven StriX in orbit providing commercial + gov data |