Portfolio Performance Update
Period: Report date (Apr 2-6) → Apr 10, 2026 close (~1 week) | Benchmark: Nikkei 225
EV Supply Chain Portfolio
+6.6%
10 stocks | 1 week
Nuclear Hidden Gems Portfolio
+8.0%
9 stocks | 1 week
Context: The Nikkei 225 surged ~5.4% on April 8 following a US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Oil plunged 14-16%. Our portfolios captured this rally and outperformed — the nuclear portfolio gained +8.0% (vs Nikkei +5.4%) driven by Yokogawa +14.3% and Kanadevia +12.6%. All 15 unique holdings are positive. Zero losers this week.
EV Portfolio — +6.6% (1 week)
| Stock | Ticker | Weight | Base Price | Current | Change | Contribution | PE Now |
|---|
| TDK | 6762.T | 15% | ¥2,043 | ¥2,310 | +13.1% | +1.96% | 25.4 |
| Murata | 6981.T | 15% | ¥3,789 | ¥4,146 | +9.4% | +1.41% | 40.1 |
| Fuji Electric | 6504.T | 15% | ¥10,805 | ¥11,395 | +5.5% | +0.82% | 19.9 |
| Sumitomo Electric | 5802.T | 5% | ¥9,400 | ¥10,580 | +12.6% | +0.63% | 38.2 |
| Nidec | 6594.T | 8% | ¥2,190 | ¥2,298 | +4.9% | +0.39% | 21.9 |
| SMM | 5713.T | 8% | ¥9,560 | ¥9,986 | +4.5% | +0.36% | 111.8 |
| AGC | 5201.T | 10% | ¥5,598 | ¥5,827 | +4.1% | +0.41% | 17.9 |
| Asahi Kasei | 3407.T | 7% | ¥1,562 | ¥1,636 | +4.7% | +0.33% | 15.8 |
| Kureha | 4023.T | 12% | ¥4,060 | ¥4,135 | +1.8% | +0.22% | 21.2 |
| Hirose | 6806.T | 5% | ¥20,900 | ¥21,235 | +1.6% | +0.08% | 23.1 |
| PORTFOLIO TOTAL | +6.6% | +6.6% | |
EV Portfolio Commentary
- TDK +13.1% (top contributor +1.96%) — Biggest winner. TDK/Murata inductor price hikes >100% may be driving re-rating. The ceasefire rally lifted all electronics names
- Sumitomo Electric +12.6% — Continues its momentum (+290% 52W). At 5% weight, contribution is limited
- Kureha +1.8% (weakest) — Still lagging. 1-month return is -10%. The negative FCF and dividend sustainability concern is weighing on the stock. Watch May earnings for FCF recovery
- Hirose +1.6% (weakest) — Flat relative to market. Consistent with our supply chain finding that evidence base is thin. The stock isn't catching the EV rally like peers
- SMM PE 111.8x — The trailing PE keeps expanding (was 103x in yfinance, 27x on StockAnalysis). This appears to be a period where trailing earnings are extremely compressed from metal prices. Forward PE (~15x) is more representative
Nuclear Portfolio — +8.0% (1 week)
| Stock | Ticker | Weight | Base Price | Current | Change | Contribution | PE Now |
|---|
| Yokogawa | 6841.T | 18% | ¥4,930 | ¥5,637 | +14.3% | +2.58% | 25.5 |
| Kanadevia | 7004.T | 10% | ¥1,077 | ¥1,213 | +12.6% | +1.26% | 11.5 |
| Organo | 6368.T | 10% | ¥14,425 | ¥16,195 | +12.3% | +1.23% | 27.0 |
| Fuji Electric | 6504.T | 15% | ¥10,805 | ¥11,395 | +5.5% | +0.82% | 19.9 |
| Toyo Tanso | 5310.T | 7% | ¥5,510 | ¥5,910 | +7.3% | +0.51% | 22.7 |
| Kurita Water | 6370.T | 8% | ¥7,685 | ¥8,118 | +5.6% | +0.45% | 39.8 |
| JSW | 5631.T | 17% | ¥9,513 | ¥9,836 | +3.4% | +0.58% | 32.8 |
| SHI | 6302.T | 10% | ¥5,086 | ¥5,266 | +3.5% | +0.35% | 20.5 |
| Nippon Carbon | 5302.T | 5% | ¥4,640 | ¥4,820 | +3.9% | +0.19% | 11.0 |
| PORTFOLIO TOTAL | +8.0% | +8.0% | |
Nuclear Portfolio Commentary
- Yokogawa +14.3% (top contributor +2.58%) — Massive outperformance. The Rolls-Royce SMR contract (Feb 2026) continues to be re-priced by the market. Our supply chain validation confirmed this is the strongest evidence-backed position in both portfolios
- Kanadevia +12.6% (+20.3% over 1 month!) — Despite our valuation concerns (PE 17x not 10x, negative FCF), Kanadevia is the best 1-month performer across both portfolios. The Fukushima decommissioning narrative + nuclear restart theme is driving this
- Organo +12.3% — Our new addition (GPT recommended) is outperforming. The "every reactor restart = Organo revenue" thesis is being validated by price action. ROE 23.5% justifies the premium
- JSW +3.4% (weakest large position) — The PE 33x + negative OCF concern is keeping a lid on the stock despite the nuclear thesis. Our weight reduction from 25% → 17% was the right call — limited the drag
Supply Chain Evidence vs Performance
Does stronger supply chain evidence correlate with better performance?
| Company | Evidence Score | 1-Week Return | Correlation? |
|---|
| Yokogawa | 8/10 (5 confirmed, 3 fresh) | +14.3% | Yes — best evidence, best return |
| Fuji Electric | 9/10 (9 confirmed) | +5.5% | Moderate — strong but not top performer (already fairly valued at PE 19x) |
| TDK | 6/10 (3 confirmed, circumstantial) | +13.1% | No — market rallied on macro (ceasefire), not supply chain specifics |
| Hirose | 5/10 (3 confirmed, still thin) | +1.6% | Yes — weakest evidence, weakest return. Market is discounting the thin EV thesis |
Observation: Yokogawa (best evidence) and Hirose (weakest evidence) show the clearest evidence→performance correlation. TDK's +13% is driven by the broad ceasefire rally and inductor pricing power, not supply chain specifics. Over time, evidence quality should matter more than one week of macro-driven moves.
What Changed Since Our Reports
| Event | Date | Impact |
|---|
| US-Iran ceasefire announced | Apr 8 | Nikkei +5.4% single session. Oil -14-16%. All positions benefited from risk-on + lower energy costs |
| Iran accuses US of ceasefire violations | Apr 9 | Nikkei -0.73% pullback. Ceasefire fragility = ongoing volatility risk |
| Nikkei recovers | Apr 10 | +1.84% to 56,924. Market digesting ceasefire as net positive despite uncertainty |
| Kanadevia +20% in 1 month | Mar-Apr | Nuclear infrastructure spending expectations rising independently of ceasefire. Decommissioning thesis gaining traction |
Action Items
| Action | Stock | Trigger | Timing |
|---|
| WATCH | Kureha (4023.T) | 1M return is -10%. FCF still negative. If May earnings don't show improvement, reduce from 12% → 7% | May earnings |
| WATCH | Hirose (6806.T) | +1.6% while market did +5%. Weakest performer = evidence thesis being tested. Hold 3% but don't add | Next quarter |
| HOLD | Yokogawa (6841.T) | +14.3% validates the Rolls-Royce SMR thesis. Best performer. Maintain 18% | — |
| HOLD | Organo (6368.T) | +12.3% validates the GPT recommendation to add water/operations exposure. Maintain 10% | — |
| MONITOR | Kanadevia (7004.T) | +20% in 1 month is very fast for a stock we flagged for negative FCF and D/E 0.88. Don't chase. If it pulls back, that's healthy | Ongoing |
| NEXT | All stocks | May earnings season — the single most important event. FCF for JSW, Kureha, Kanadevia, Toyo Tanso is the key metric | Late Apr–May |
Portfolio Summary
EV Portfolio
+6.6%
Best: TDK +13.1% | Worst: Hirose +1.6%
All 10 holdings positive
Nuclear Portfolio
+8.0%
Best: Yokogawa +14.3% | Worst: Nippon Carbon +3.9%
All 9 holdings positive. Outperformed Nikkei +5.4%
Portfolio Performance Update | Baseline: Report date (Apr 2-6) → Current: Apr 10 close
Prices: Yahoo Finance via StockAnalysis.com | Market context: CNBC, BBN Times
Generated by JPstock-agent | 2026-04-11