Report Date: 2026-04-11 | Holdings: 9 | Theme: nuclear_energy | Top-3: 50.0% | HHI: 0.1276 (~7.8 effective names)
Portfolio with 9 holdings (4 HIGH conviction). Theme: Nuclear / Energy. Nuclear restart and energy transition value chain 2 holding(s) have negative FCF — flagged below.
Nuclear / Energy: Nuclear restart and energy transition value chain
Fundamentals from yfinance. Forward PE must be verified against StockAnalysis.com for Japanese mid/small-caps (known yfinance data quality issue).
| Stock | Ticker | Wt | Conv | PE | Fwd PE | P/B | ROE | OpM | D/E | DY | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | 6841.T | 18.0% | HIGH | 25.5 | 26.1 | 2.84 | 12.2% | 14.1% | 5% | 1.4% | — |
| JAPAN STEEL WORKS | 5631.T | 17.0% | HIGH | 30.4 | 32.7 | 3.29 | 10.5% | 8.1% | 34% | 0.9% | — |
| FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | 6504.T | 15.0% | HIGH | 18.8 | 17.7 | 2.11 | 11.8% | 10.0% | 13% | 1.6% | — |
| ORGANO CORP | 6368.T | 10.0% | HIGH | 24.0 | 31.8 | 5.07 | 23.5% | 19.4% | 24% | 1.3% | — |
| KANADEVIA CORPORATION | 7004.T | 10.0% | MED | 10.2 | 8.0 | 1.02 | 5.8% | 2.0% | 88% | 2.3% | ¥-3B |
| SUMITOMO HEAVY INDUSTRIES | 6302.T | 10.0% | MED | 19.2 | 14.8 | 0.87 | 4.7% | 5.3% | 37% | 2.9% | +¥14B |
| KURITA WATER INDUSTRIES | 6370.T | 8.0% | MED | 37.1 | 22.6 | 2.37 | 6.8% | 14.6% | 32% | 1.4% | +¥31B |
| TOYO TANSO CO LTD | 5310.T | 7.0% | LOW | 20.6 | 11.7 | 1.16 | 5.7% | 11.0% | 6% | 2.7% | ¥-10B |
| NIPPON CARBON CO | 5302.T | 5.0% | LOW | 10.6 | 10.3 | 0.95 | 8.7% | 14.3% | 16% | 4.3% | +¥0B |
WHY this stock: Signed strategic agreement with Rolls-Royce SMR (Feb 2, 2026) to deliver DPCS for the entire SMR fleet — UK + Czech Republic. Exclusive contract. 65+ years nuclear monitoring pedigree. Also: Saudi Aramco CPA since 2012 (AI agents Oct 2025), Shell robotics JV (Jun 2025), ADNOC $708M framework.
WHY 18.0%: Best quality-to-valuation ratio. ROE 12.2%, op margin 14.6%, D/E only 0.05. FCF strongly positive at ¥88B — highest in portfolio. Both Claude and GPT rated 'agree; keep.'
What could go wrong: Rolls-Royce SMR program delays or cancellation; oil/gas capex downturn affecting core business.
Monitoring trigger: If Rolls-Royce SMR project milestones slip, reassess nuclear optionality premium. Watch May earnings for SMR revenue recognition timing.
WHY this stock: 80% global monopoly in nuclear reactor pressure vessel forgings. Only company capable of making largest single-piece nuclear forgings. Backlog >¥135B. METI officially named JSW as BWRX-300 supplier (Mar 2026). ¥28B CAPEX committed for SMR production upgrades. 18-month manufacturing cycle = multi-year visibility.
WHY 17.0%: Monopoly is irreplaceable but reduced from 25% due to negative operating CF (-¥4.6B) and FCF (-¥19.7B) in FY2025 driven by ¥32.3B inventory build for SMR capex program.
What could go wrong: SMR order pipeline doesn't convert to revenue; cash burn continues longer than expected; competitor emerges for smaller forgings.
Monitoring trigger: If operating CF remains negative in FY2026 results (May 2026), reduce to 12%. If inventory converts to revenue (OCF turns positive), increase back to 20%.
WHY this stock: Top-5 global in nuclear radiation monitoring (65+ years, 95% domestic market share) AND top-5 global in IGBT/SiC power semiconductors for EVs. Confirmed customers: Honda (IGBT), Bosch (SiC JV), Vestas (wind), JNFL Rokkasho (300-channel panel). Raised FY operating profit guidance to ¥128.5B.
WHY 15.0%: Dual-theme (nuclear + EV) at PE 18.6x with ROE 11.8%, D/E 0.13, FCF +¥51B. Both Claude and GPT independently said 'agree; keep' in BOTH portfolios.
What could go wrong: Industrial capex downturn; SiC competitors erode IGBT share faster than expected.
Monitoring trigger: Watch May earnings for nuclear instrumentation order flow and power semi backlog. If either segment weakens, reassess dual-theme premium.
WHY this stock: Nuclear water purification specialist — condensate filters, demineralizers, reactor water cleanup for every operating reactor. Best quality: ROE 23.5%, operating margin 21.4%. FCF turned positive in FY2025 (+¥19B). Every reactor restart = Organo revenue.
WHY 10.0%: Increased from 8% because this is the portfolio's best quality name. Provides 'operations' exposure — revenue from ongoing reactor maintenance, not just construction/build-out.
What could go wrong: Reactor restart pace slows; semiconductor ultrapure water business faces competition.
Monitoring trigger: If P/B expands >6x without earnings support, trim to 7%. Watch for new reactor restart announcements — each one is an Organo revenue event.
WHY this stock: Fukushima decommissioning cask manufacturer with specific TEPCO JV ('Toso Mirai Manufacturing'). First domestic maker of used fuel transport casks since 1978. ¥22 trillion, 30-40 year revenue stream. Name changed from Hitachi Zosen Oct 2024 — databases still show old name.
WHY 10.0%: Corrected PE is 17.4x (not our original 10.2x). FCF is negative (-¥12.8B). D/E 0.88. Not a quality compounder — it's a specific-catalyst value play on the decommissioning contract.
What could go wrong: Fukushima decommissioning timeline extends; TEPCO JV production delays; balance sheet stress from D/E 0.88 + negative FCF.
Monitoring trigger: If D/E exceeds 1.0 or FCF remains negative for 2+ more periods, cut to 5%. If TEPCO JV begins shipping casks (revenue recognition), consider increasing.
WHY this stock: Sole Japanese manufacturer of PET cyclotrons (100+ deliveries). World's first approved BNCT (Boron Neutron Capture Therapy) cancer treatment system (NeuCure). Japan nuclear medicine market growing $550M → $2.54B by 2031 (21.2% CAGR). P/B 0.88 (below book) with 2.9% dividend yield.
WHY 10.0%: Unique exposure to nuclear technology outside of power generation. BNCT system is first-in-world. P/B below book provides downside cushion. FCF positive (¥11B).
What could go wrong: BNCT adoption slower than expected; cyclotron demand matures; nuclear medicine not large enough segment to move the stock.
Monitoring trigger: Track BNCT installation announcements and nuclear medicine market size updates. If no BNCT progress in 12 months, reduce to 5%.
WHY this stock: Nuclear cooling water chemistry specialist + semiconductor ultrapure water leader. Dual nuclear + semiconductor theme. FCF strongly positive (¥25B). Op margin 13.7%. As reactors restart and semiconductor fabs are built (TSMC, Rapidus, Micron), Kurita's services are needed.
WHY 8.0%: Added per GPT recommendation for 'operations/maintenance' ballast. Fwd PE 20.5x (strong earnings growth expected).
What could go wrong: Semiconductor fab buildout slows; nuclear restart pace disappoints; premium valuation compresses.
Monitoring trigger: If fwd PE expands >25x without earnings revision, trim to 5%. Watch semiconductor fab capex announcements.
WHY this stock: Produces isotropic graphite for HTGR core components, fusion reactor wall materials, AND semiconductor graphite. Recently received order for high-temperature micro-reactor graphite (TSE disclosure). Dual nuclear + semiconductor graphite exposure in ¥114B micro-cap. D/E only 0.06.
WHY 7.0%: Corrected fwd PE is 21.8x (not 11.7x) — no longer 'cheap.' FCF is negative (-¥5.8B) from capacity expansion capex. This is optionality, not value. 7% reflects optionality sizing.
What could go wrong: HTGR/fusion timelines extend indefinitely; semiconductor graphite demand weakens; illiquidity (¥114B market cap).
Monitoring trigger: If additional HTGR or micro-reactor graphite orders disclosed, consider increasing to 10%. If no new nuclear orders in 12 months, reduce to 3%.
WHY this stock: Nuclear graphite supplier since 1957 + lithium-ion battery anode materials. Trailing PE 10.6x — cheapest in portfolio. P/B 0.81 (below book). Dividend yield 4.3% — highest in portfolio. FCF marginally positive (+¥0.8B). Dual nuclear + EV materials exposure.
WHY 5.0%: Deep value + yield sleeve. Forward PE 19.6x is much higher than trailing (10.6x) — market expects earnings to decline. ¥51B market cap = very illiquid.
What could go wrong: Earnings decline materializes; illiquidity makes exits costly.
Monitoring trigger: If trailing PE expands >15x (earnings declining), reassess. Hold for yield (4.3%) as long as dividend is maintained.
| Layer | Weight | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| SMR / Construction | 35.0% | 6841.T, 5631.T |
| Nuclear Operations | 33.0% | 6504.T, 6368.T, 6370.T |
| Next-Gen Materials | 12.0% | 5310.T, 5302.T |
| Decommissioning | 10.0% | 7004.T |
| Nuclear Medicine | 10.0% | 6302.T |
| Stock | Ticker | Weight | Conviction | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | 6841.T | 18.0% | HIGH | Best quality-to-valuation ratio. ROE 12.2%, op margin 14.6%, D/E only 0.05. FCF ... |
| JAPAN STEEL WORKS | 5631.T | 17.0% | HIGH | Monopoly is irreplaceable but reduced from 25% due to negative operating CF (-¥4... |
| FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | 6504.T | 15.0% | HIGH | Dual-theme (nuclear + EV) at PE 18.6x with ROE 11.8%, D/E 0.13, FCF +¥51B. Both ... |
| ORGANO CORP | 6368.T | 10.0% | HIGH | Increased from 8% because this is the portfolio's best quality name. Provides 'o... |
| KANADEVIA CORPORATION | 7004.T | 10.0% | MEDIUM | Corrected PE is 17.4x (not our original 10.2x). FCF is negative (-¥12.8B). D/E 0... |
| SUMITOMO HEAVY INDUSTRIES | 6302.T | 10.0% | MEDIUM | Unique exposure to nuclear technology outside of power generation. BNCT system i... |
| KURITA WATER INDUSTRIES | 6370.T | 8.0% | MEDIUM | Added per GPT recommendation for 'operations/maintenance' ballast. Fwd PE 20.5x ... |
| TOYO TANSO CO LTD | 5310.T | 7.0% | LOW | Corrected fwd PE is 21.8x (not 11.7x) — no longer 'cheap.' FCF is negative (-¥5.... |
| NIPPON CARBON CO | 5302.T | 5.0% | LOW | Deep value + yield sleeve. Forward PE 19.6x is much higher than trailing (10.6x)... |
| Date | Company | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | Earnings announcement for 6504.T |
| 2026-04-28 | SUMITOMO HEAVY INDUSTRIES | Earnings announcement for 6302.T |
| 2026-05-07 | YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | Earnings announcement for 6841.T |
| 2026-05-07 | KURITA WATER INDUSTRIES | Earnings announcement for 6370.T |
| 2026-05-12 | KANADEVIA CORPORATION | Earnings announcement for 7004.T |
| 2026-05-13 | JAPAN STEEL WORKS | Earnings announcement for 5631.T |
| 2026-05-13 | ORGANO CORP | Earnings announcement for 6368.T |
| Stock | Weight | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| 6841.T (YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP) | 18.0% | If Rolls-Royce SMR project milestones slip, reassess nuclear optionality premium. Watch May earnings for SMR revenue recognition timing. |
| 5631.T (JAPAN STEEL WORKS) | 17.0% | If operating CF remains negative in FY2026 results (May 2026), reduce to 12%. If inventory converts to revenue (OCF turns positive), increase back to 20%. |
| 6504.T (FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD.) | 15.0% | Watch May earnings for nuclear instrumentation order flow and power semi backlog. If either segment weakens, reassess dual-theme premium. |
| 6368.T (ORGANO CORP) | 10.0% | If P/B expands >6x without earnings support, trim to 7%. Watch for new reactor restart announcements — each one is an Organo revenue event. |
| 7004.T (KANADEVIA CORPORATION) | 10.0% | If D/E exceeds 1.0 or FCF remains negative for 2+ more periods, cut to 5%. If TEPCO JV begins shipping casks (revenue recognition), consider increasing. |
| 6302.T (SUMITOMO HEAVY INDUSTRIES) | 10.0% | Track BNCT installation announcements and nuclear medicine market size updates. If no BNCT progress in 12 months, reduce to 5%. |
| 6370.T (KURITA WATER INDUSTRIES) | 8.0% | If fwd PE expands >25x without earnings revision, trim to 5%. Watch semiconductor fab capex announcements. |
| 5310.T (TOYO TANSO CO LTD) | 7.0% | If additional HTGR or micro-reactor graphite orders disclosed, consider increasing to 10%. If no new nuclear orders in 12 months, reduce to 3%. |
| 5302.T (NIPPON CARBON CO) | 5.0% | If trailing PE expands >15x (earnings declining), reassess. Hold for yield (4.3%) as long as dividend is maintained. |
2026-06-30
Evidence levels: CONFIRMED named in press release/teardown/filing | PROBABLE industry standard/trade show | INFERRED logical but unproven
| Evidence | Supplier | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONFIRMED | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | Honda Motor Co. | IGBT power modules for EV inverters | Honda named as IGBT customer in Fuji Electric article. Honda is explic... |
| CONFIRMED | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | Robert Bosch GmbH | SiC power semiconductor collaboration — joint deve... | Fuji Electric and Bosch agreed to collaborate on SiC power semiconduct... |
| CONFIRMED | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | Vestas Wind Systems | Large-capacity IGBT modules for wind turbines (var... | Partnership since 2017. Fuji Electric supplies IGBT modules for Vestas... |
| CONFIRMED | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | Beverage/food companies (vending) | Vending machines — Fuji Electric is Japan's leadin... | Fuji Electric is one of Japan's top 2 vending machine makers. Major re... |
| CONFIRMED | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | JNFL (Rokkasho) | 300-channel radiation monitoring panel — largest i... | Fuji Electric's own product page names JNFL as customer for 300-channe... |
| CONFIRMED | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | All Japanese nuclear utilities (~95% share) | Nuclear radiation monitoring systems — 95% domesti... | Fuji Electric holds approximately 95% market share in Japan nuclear ra... |
| CONFIRMED | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan | Beverage vending machines + world's first hydrogen... | Joint hydrogen vending machine at EXPO 2025 Osaka. CCBJI is core vendi... |
| CONFIRMED | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | Landsvirkjun (Iceland) | Two 45 MW geothermal steam turbines (Theistareykir... | Supply contract confirmed. Units commissioned 2017-2018 |
| CONFIRMED | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | KenGen (Kenya) | Geothermal turbine for Olkaria I Unit 6 (70 MW) + ... | EPC sub-contract via Marubeni. Olkaria operational 2022 |
| PROBABLE | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | Japanese electric utilities (nuclear monitoring) | Nuclear radiation monitoring systems, personal dos... | Fuji Electric has 65+ year nuclear monitoring history. Named in global... |
| PROBABLE | FUJI ELECTRIC CO. LTD. | Global automotive Tier 1s (unnamed) | IGBT and SiC power modules for EV/HEV inverters an... | Fuji Electric is top-5 global IGBT maker alongside Infineon, Mitsubish... |
| CONFIRMED | YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | Rolls-Royce SMR | Data Processing and Control Systems (DPCS) for SMR... | Joint press release 2 Feb 2026. Covers first units of global SMR fleet... |
| CONFIRMED | YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | Saudi Aramco | CENTUM VP DCS + autonomous AI control agents (FKDP... | Corporate Procurement Agreement since 2012. Oct 2025: AI agents commis... |
| CONFIRMED | YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | Shell | OpreX Robot Management + Shell ORE AI tool for pla... | June 2025 joint press release. Long-term agreement with pilot at two S... |
| CONFIRMED | YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | ADNOC (GASCO, ADCO, TAKREER) | ICSS, ESD, fire & gas systems, automation. AED 2.6... | ~$200M orders (2010); AED 2.6B ($708M) framework agreement for ICSS, E... |
| CONFIRMED | YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | PetroChina (Guangxi Petrochemical) | CENTUM DCS, OMS, OTS, PRM for 10 MT/year refinery | Named customer reference on Yokogawa website |
| INFERRED | YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | JNFL Rokkasho | Radiation monitoring panel / instrumentation | CORRECTION: No public source confirms Yokogawa as Rokkasho radiation p... |
| PROBABLE | YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | ČEZ (Czech Republic) — via Rolls-Royce SMR | DPCS for SMR fleet (indirect via Rolls-Royce SMR) | ČEZ selected Rolls-Royce SMR for up to 3 GW. Yokogawa agreement covers... |
| PROBABLE | YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP | Japanese nuclear utilities (TEPCO, Kansai, etc.) | Nuclear plant instrumentation and control systems | Yokogawa dominant in Japan industrial I&C. States 'products used in nu... |
templates/equity_peer_comparison_template_full.md for the complete 24-section research framework| Data | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Stock fundamentals | Yahoo Finance (yfinance) | 2026-04-11 |
| Stock universe | J-Quants API (JPX) | Synced periodically |
| Supply chain evidence | Web research + company press releases | Various (see evidence dates) |
| Key dates | yfinance earnings calendar + manual catalysts | 2026-04-11 |
| DD narrative | Qwen 3.5 via Ollama (local LLM) | Pipeline run |
| Research framework | Equity Peer Comparison Template (24 sections) | Reference |
Auto-generated by JPstock-agent pipeline | 2026-04-11
Follows Equity Peer Comparison framework — see templates/equity_peer_comparison_template_full.md for full 24-section reference
AI-assisted research, not investment advice